Wednesday Night GMAT: Analysis of an Argument

The following appeared as part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor:

“Reelect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state’s economy. Over the past year alone, 70 per cent of the state’s worker’s have had increases in their wages, 5,000 new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adam’s opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams’s economic policies”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.

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From the passage above, it seems that there is little reason to not reelect Adams as governor of the state. The economy is booming, new jobs are being created and more are on the way, if the new corporations making their headquarters in the state is any indication. The people polled are happy with the current regime and who can blame them? 70 per cent of them are earning more than this time last year!

Even more encouraging for Adams’s campaign is that the incumbent’s opponent is directly opposing the very policies that bought the state such prosperity. Who wouldn’t vote for Adams?

On face value, it seems that Adams is the perfect candidate for the job. Until that is, one rereads the opening phrasing and discovers that the passage is not an unbiased, authoritative endorsement of Adams’s tenure, but a paid-for advertisement from the Adams campaign machine.

The passage, it turns out, was brought with cold hard cash; not earned through successful policies.

With this glaring conflict of interests in mind, the prudent voter would do well to return to the passage and scrutinize it with a more critical eye.

While the passage presents a logical, well structured argument for Adams as governor, as a paid for advertisement, we must look at the facts presented with an eagle eye.

Taking the facts point by point as they appear in the advertisement gives us the following analysis:

70 per cent of workers have had increases in their wages – but how were the wage increases relative to inflation? A worker could receive a 40 per cent wage increase, but if inflation is 41 per cent, the wages have actually decreased in value on a year-over-year basis. In addition, what has happened to the other 30 per cent of workers? Have their wages decreased or, have they possibly disappeared through redundancies? This statistic can be interpreted in a number of ways, depending on the context in which is exists.

5,000 new jobs have been created, but at what cost? 7,500 jobs could have been lost through redundancies or through industries retooling. These 5,000 jobs could be in a dying industry and the state could have been better served in attracting an industry with a healthier future. The jobs could have also been created at the expense of more jobs from a larger employer that governor Adams offended either personally or through financial policies.

This critical analysis can also be applied to the six corporations who have made their home in governor Adams’s state. Which, richer, wealthier corporations could Zebulon attracted to the state?

Again, context is vital when analysing the “facts” presented in any advertisement – political or otherwise.

The poll presented by Adams’s campaign is also of interest. Was the poll conducted or endorsed by a respected third party research scientist? Was the polled population sample selected at random or was it selected from Adams’s cronies? What was the sample size large enough for scientific analysis – and what was the margin for error?

Again, there are many questions raised by this advertisement that would not have been raised had this been an editorial opinion piece from the state’s largest and most respected newspaper’s editor.

Finally, the advertisement makes mention of Zebulon’s disagreement with Adams’s economic policies but leaves the reader in the dark when it comes to exactly what Zebulon’s policies are – meaning readers of the advertisement are denied the ability to make an informed choice over who the best person to run their state is.

Unfortunately, political propaganda such as this can often get misconstrued by an unsuspecting general public as a legitimate endorsement from an authoritative source.

Wednesday Night GMAT: Analysis of an Issue

People are likely to accept as a leader only someone who has demonstrated an ability to perform the same tasks that he or she expects others to perform.

Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the opinion stated above. Support your view with reasons and/or examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.

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As the passage above infers, there are two main leadership styles that all other styles can be categorized into.

Leading by example

and

Leading by authority

This can be seen not just in the business world, but also in the world of sports. Take a professional NFL or rugby team. While there are many leaders, there is only one “team captain”, who’s job is to not only lead, but to inspire his troops. In the case of the last four Rugby World Cup winning teams, the captains have all come from the most physically demanding set of players – the forwards, or the scrum – and each of these captains has lead by example, putting his body on the line in order to further the cause of the team.

Francois Pienaar, John Eales, Martin Johnson and most recently, John Smit were all known as intensely physical competitors not adverse to bending the rules or, to use a common rugby phrase, putting their heads in where it hurt. Each of these leaders lead, primarily by example. They pushed their bodies to the limit in one of the world’s most demanding sports and expected their teams to do the same. Because of the situations the groups of players found themselves in, they reacted to this style of leadership and formed a, seemingly, unbreakable bond to meet a common goal – lifting the William Webb Ellis trophy as world champions.

However, each team also has a central fulcrum – the quarterback or fly-half – who leads the team by virtue of his skills and ability but who is not necessarily the team captain. The fulcrum does not need to lead by example; does not need to put his body on the line or exhort his team mates to fight longer, harder, stronger. This player has a leadership role by virtue of his skills. The natural authority inferred on him by the role is enough to for him to lead and, importantly be supported by his team-mates.

Watch any NFL game and, should the quarterback take a late tackle, you will invariably see a small scale riot as his team mates rush to his defence.

I believe that sport and business have uncanny parallels, especially when it comes to the qualities needed to succeed in both. However, it is important to remember that the leadership style one adopts should not be determined by the leader, but by the team, the individuals being lead and the situation.

When managing a small team, one should be cognizant to show leadership by example in order to influence and inspire your colleagues; but this hands on style can be diluted as the group grows and the prospective leader would be well-advised to take a step back from the hands-on, lead by example style that has served her so well up to now. When leading a large group of direct reports, the leader needs to distance herself from the team, to lead with authority; not necessarily by example. For instance, Meg Whitman of ebay is a brilliant strategist but, while I’m sure she would be a fantastic software engineer, should not try to prove her coding skills to the IT department in order to inspire and lead them. Her position and decisions appropriate to her position should be enough to command respect.

However a talented leader such as “Neutron” Jack Welch, is able to transfer this hands on leadership style to inspire an entire organization as huge and diverse and General Electric. Interestingly enough, it was by focusing his attention on a small cadre of managers and letting his enthusiasm cascade down to the rest of the employees, that allowed him to achieve this extraordinary feat.

It is also important that different people react in different ways in different situations so there can be no “silver bullet” for great leadership. Some people thrive on autonomy in the workplace or on the sports field and the cany leader would do well to recognise when to step back and offer big picture, strategic advice, rather than rolling up her sleeves and getting too involved with her team member’s project or role. On the other hand, some employees need a more nurturing, emotive leader who they can stand (or sit) shoulder to shoulder with as they face the next challenge. When faced with this class of employee, the shrewd manager should indeed roll up his sleeves and give the team member the support and leadership they need to be as effective a worker as possible.

After all, isn’t an efficient and winning workforce the goal of any successful business leader?

Tuesday Night GMAT: Analysis of an Argument

The following appeared as part of an article in a photography magazine:

“When choosing whether to work in colour or black-and-white, the photographer who wishes to be successful should keep in mind that because colour photographs are more true to life, magazines use more colour photographs than black-and-white one, and many newspapers are also starting to use color photographs. The realism of colour also accounts for the fact that most portrait studios use more colour film than black-and-white film. Furthermore, there are more types of colour film that black and white film available today. Clearly those photographers who work in colour have an advantage over those who work in black-and-white”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.

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In trying to persuade the reader, presumably a commercial photographer, the author uses a compelling, logically constructed argument. The passage would, on first reading, be enough for many would-be paparazzi to switch to colour film, should they be using the black-and-white variety. Considering of course, they wish to be commercially successful in selling their images to the media industry. 

The high demand for colour images due in part to the realism of the images is a persuasive train of thought, although in a digital age, the issue of how many types of colour (versus black-and-white) films are available seems irrelevant.

Conflists of Interest

However, as the article first appeared in a photography magazine, the motives of the author are questionable. It is not inconceivable that the author is an executive from a film manufacturer writing a bylined article designed to bolster sales of a high margin product, as colour films undoubtedly are. The article could also have been printed as an “advertorial” in bought media space rather than the trusted editorial opinion and third party validation of the  magazine’s staff.

Cyclical Supply and Demand

Conflicts of interest from the author aside, the author does not look deeper into the implications of the supply and demand model introduced in the passage. Let us imagine that the media industry is, indeed, generating increasing demand for colour images. This, in turn increases the supply for the product and floods the market for colour images.

If supply is too high, demand shrinks – something that would not be altogether surprising considering the competitive, increasingly global nature of the media industry. Media outlets looking to differentiate themselves stylistically could decide to move back to black-and-white images due to the low cost of any product in low demand. This would give the media company a unique selling point (dramatically different style) and a competitive advantage (lower expenditure on image royalties).

Quality Control

The final and, in my mind, greatest flaw in the passage is that the author is propagating colour film as the end to all struggling commercial photographer’s woes – if you are working with black-and-white film, you are at a disadvantage – as if the only factor taken into account when viewing an image is whether it is in colour or black and white.

The author says nothing of the content and composition of the image in question.

It would be a worthwhile caveat to remind would be commercial photographers to focus on producing a quality product, rather than on something that will on influence a customer, in this case a news desk or photo editor, on the margins rather than on a material basis.

Tuesday Night GMAT: Analysis of an Issue

“Government should establish regulations to reduce or eliminate any suspected health hazards in the environment, even when the scientific studies of these health hazards are incomplete or contradictory.”

Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the opinion stated above. Support your views with reasons and/or examples from your own experience, observations, or reading.

When considering the philosophy of government intervention, it is important to remember the words of Sir Edmund Burke: “I am a representative; not a delegate.” This famous (possibly paraphrased) and important quote shows that the role of government is to make decisions with the best interests of its constituents (the voters) at heart. On surface value, it may seem that I am advocating blanket regulations at the very whiff of a public health hazard. This is not true.

When making its decision on when to regulate the environment, government needs to act neutrally and with both the financial and physical health of the country at heart. In many ways, government is like a publicly traded company – with fiscal responsibility towards the tax payers (shareholders) and social responsibility for the voters (customers).

Questions that any government considering an intervention should consider include:

Is this issue a serious threat to the health of the community?

How will intervening in this matter affect all the stakeholders – will the financial burden be outweighed by the health benefit? What is the opportunity cost of intervening?

Scientific Doubts

On my first question: if there are doubts as to the scientific veracity of the alleged hazard, the government should seek to mediate between the two sides, being cautious as to the conflict of interests that may arise. If a mobile phone carrier produces evidence to disprove a claim that cell-phone towers cause leukemia in the surrounding population, this clearly needs to be taken with scepticism – despite the size of the mobile phone carrier’s electoral donations.

When ruling on such issues, the government should seek to be as neutral and impartial as possible – forming committees or funding further investigation into allegations but always acting with the public’s best interest at heart.

However, if peer-reviewed scientific evidence disproves such a health hazard, then the government would be within its rights, and moral obligation, to not institute regulations surrounding the hazard.

Opportunity Cost

My second question, regarding the opportunity cost of intervention, is a less definitive one. In the case of an industry practice causing a health hazard, it is easy to regulate against it – either through excessive taxation or specific legislation. But what if the hazard is not being perpetuated by “big business”?

Examples

Take the case of a gang of youths wandering the local community. These youths do not specifically break the law, but their threatening attitude could be considered to be hazardous to public health. Should government pre-emptively regulate their behaviour through Anti-Social Behavioural Orders (ASBOs) as in the UK? That would certainly be in the public interest and would, if validated by a positive answer to my first question, be a legitimate course of action.

But the opportunity cost of such a drastic intervention is the civil liberty of the group. Individually, they have done nothing wrong but as a group, their behaviour is clearly a health hazard.

In the case of global warming, there are many scientists, and Nobel prize winners, who would have the general public and world leaders, believe the case for global warming and its alarming effects. However, the case for global warming is far from proven. Many scientists doubt the research presented as conclusive proof of global warming and the predictions that are derived from it. A number research scientists even went as far as to ask for their names to be removed from the UN’s final report on the issue.

So what should world leaders do in such an emotive situation – after all, this is a health hazard of the most serious nature. Our planet is dying cry one party. No, says the other party, the world is simply going through another cycle in just the same way it has for hundreds of millions of years.

The opportunity cost of stopping activities that may lead to global warming is huge. Many valubale and limited resources must be put into activities to simply meet the Kyoto agreement and in doing so may irrevocably damage the nation’s economy. In this case, I would advocate a safety first approach. Encourage members of the public to reduce their use of fossil fuels (carbon footprints) through recycling, energy efficient activities, carpooling, cycling and the like. Use tax breaks or tradable credits to encourage businesses to change their processes and reduce their carbon footprints – all the while funding additional research that can be approved by the two (literally in this case) warring factions.

Conclusion

The safety and well-being of the public must come first but at what opportunity cost?

BMBY: GMAT week

This Saturday I’m going to do something I haven’t done in just over five years. I’m going to take an exam – the GMAT.

In part because I’m curious to test myself, in part to, hopefully, see what’s down the rabbit hole. If I do well, I’ll consider my options of schools to apply to and look into raising the (not inconsiderable sum of) money needed to fund an MBA program. I hope my iStudio/FH bosses will support me with time or money or both as I embark on a two-three year part time course. Should I do well in the GMAT on Saturday.

Over the last few months I’ve been diligently ignoring the Great Big Yellow book on my coffee table, dipping in and out of it at different times before really cranking the gears over the last week or so. Let me tell you that last week’s new business pitch could not have come at a worse time – but it’ll be worth it if we win what should be an invigorating, innovative project.

While I’ve been studying, I’ve noticed that I will, on occasion, do pretty much anything to get away from studying. I will actually do anything to get away from studying the “data sufficiency” section that I’ve struggled with.

I’ll cook elaborate meals. And then do the washing up.

My clothes have never been this clean. Or ironed.

My computer files are immaculate. My timesheets are always done on time and my email inbox, once at some 1,500 emails, is down to less than 10. The rest not longer clog up the local MS Office server but are, instead, neatly filed and categorised in offline folders.

Right now I’m in Starbucks working on the practice CD that comes with your GMAT appointment and am about to crack the writing assignments.

I’ve decided that my content shouldn’t go to waste on the programme itself but should be archived for posterity, or to humiliate myself a few months down the line.

So this week I’ll be posting two articles a night on “Analysis of an Issue” and “Analysis of an Argument”. The rules are that I have 30 mins from when I start reading the question to when I have to stop writing. This includes planning my response, writing a first draft and then editing it.

I hope you, the reader, will indulge me these very un-PR, un-marketing, un-social media focused posts and, if you are so inclined, let me know where I can improve.

Perhaps radical transparency can help me.

First up, in the next post, a fascinating look at the trials and tribulations of “motorcycle x”.

Enjoy.