The 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

var gaJsHost = ((“https:” == document.location.protocol) ? “https://ssl.” : “http://www.”);
document.write(unescape(“%3Cscript src='” + gaJsHost + “’ type=’text/javascript’%3E%3C/script%3E”));
Every year, technology research house, Gartner releases what is known as a “hype cycle” – rating the expectations behind each maturing technology against their usefulness/adoption within business. It shows how technologies move through the initial spurt (technology trigger), through the peak of inflated expectations (can anyone say “Twitter”), through the trough of disillusionment, into to the slope of enlightenment and finally, the plateau of productivity and mainstream adoption.

This year is no different (see the graphic below)and an insightful write-up of the part of this year’s Gartner Hype Cycle which focuses on social media can be found on ReadWriteWeb.

It is interesting to note that Twitter, or more generally speaking “microblogging”, is falling from the peak of inflated expectations and into the trough of disillusionment. It is great to see corporate blogging moving up the slope of enlightenment and is predicted to reach mainstream adoption in “less than two years”. Personally I am surprised to see online video on the downward slope to to the trough of disillusionment and that it is being outstripped by public virtual worlds in the “race” to mainstream adoption.

It is also interesting to see what is moving up the peak of inflated expectations. Augmented reality is a very cool technology which you can see in action below.

Mobile robots sound very cool and Internet TV could make advertising far more interactive and contextually relevant – imagine watching a Liverpool match and being flashed an ad to buy a Fernando Torres shirt after he scores another screamer…and it being one click away on your remote. You can insert your own preferred sport/team 😉

Most importantly of all for com.motion and our clients, the “Web 2.0” or social media phenomenon is rated as moving into the slope of enlightenment and that it will be adopted by the mainstream in less than two years. Judging by the exciting and innovative technologies on the hype cycle, we are in for an exciting time!

More on the Gartner Hype Cycle for consultants and agencies.

var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker(“UA-3067807-1”);


One Response to The 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

  1. steve_dodd says:

    Hey Ed, great analysis. I also think it is important to point out that Microblogging AND Social Software Suites in general are falling into that "Trough of Disillusionment". Doesn't this include Facebook, MySpace and all the rest (including but not just limited to Twitter)? The good news is that as we move through this cycle, the junk will fall by the wayside and the technologies with real value will survive (as you noted about corporate blogging).

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: