2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

Cross posted from the com.motion blog.

Every year, technology research house, Gartner releases what is known as a “hype cycle” – rating the expectations behind each maturing technology against their usefulness/adoption within business. It shows how technologies move through the initial spurt (technology trigger), through the peak of inflated expectations (can anyone say “Twitter”), through the trough of disillusionment, into to the slope of enlightenment and finally, the plateau of productivity and mainstream adoption.

This year is no different (see the graphic below)and an insightful write-up of the part of this year’s Gartner Hype Cycle which focuses on social media can be found on ReadWriteWeb.

image

It is interesting to note that Twitter, or more generally speaking “microblogging”, is falling from the peak of inflated expectations and into the trough of disillusionment. It is great to see corporate blogging moving up the slope of enlightenment and is predicted to reach mainstream adoption in “less than two years”. Personally I am surprised to see online video on the downward slope to to the trough of disillusionment and that it is being outstripped by public virtual worlds in the “race” to mainstream adoption.

It is also interesting to see what is moving up the peak of inflated expectations. Augmented reality is a very cool technology which you can see in action below.

Mobile robots sound very cool and Internet TV could make advertising far more interactive and contextually relevant – imagine watching a Liverpool match and being flashed an ad to buy a Fernando Torres shirt after he scores another screamer…and it being one click away on your remote. You can insert your own preferred sport/team😉

Most importantly of all for com.motion and our clients, the “Web 2.0” or social media phenomenon is rated as moving into the slope of enlightenment and that it will be adopted by the mainstream in less than two years. Judging by the exciting and innovative technologies on the hype cycle, we are in for an exciting time!

More on the Gartner Hype Cycle for consultants and agencies.

One Response to 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle

  1. Joe Boughner says:

    I’m sure if I clicked the “more on the Gartner Hype Cycle…” link I’d get my answer but, hey, I’m lazy – what’s the methodology behind the cycle? What’s the risk of some of this become a self-fulfiling prophecy – both on the success and the failure side?

    Also, I’m struck by the inclusion of “obsolete before plateau” in the legend but not on the actual chart. Did they decide not to include those technologies that would become obsolete before their time? Or did they simply conclude that everything they evaluated would eventually be adopted?

    Thanks for sharing this, Ed.

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